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History is Cycles and How We Can Already See Forward

History is Cycles and How We Can Already See Forward

History is Cycles and How We Can Already See Forward

If you study history long enough, you start to see the patterns. Not perfect predictions, but recognizable rhythms that help navigate uncertainty.

The Pattern of Technological Disruption

Every major technological shift follows a similar arc:

Phase 1: Invention (1-5 years) A breakthrough technology emerges. Most people dismiss it as a toy or gimmick. The printing press, electricity, the internet, smartphones—all started this way.

Phase 2: Infrastructure Building (5-15 years) Early adopters build the infrastructure. It’s messy, expensive, and most attempts fail. But the foundation gets laid.

Phase 3: Mass Adoption (15-30 years) The technology becomes accessible and essential. Business models emerge. Fortunes are made and lost. Society transforms.

Phase 4: Invisible Integration (30+ years) The technology becomes so fundamental it disappears into the background. Nobody talks about “internet strategy” anymore—it’s just strategy.

Where We Are with AI

We’re in Phase 2 of AI: infrastructure building. The breakthrough happened (GPT moment), and now we’re in the messy middle where:

  • Everyone is experimenting
  • Most implementations are clunky
  • The real business models haven’t emerged yet
  • Skeptics and believers battle it out

But here’s what history tells us: Phase 3 is coming faster than most expect.

The Cycle of Business Models

Business models also follow predictable patterns:

Scarcity → Abundance → New Scarcity

When something becomes abundant (information, content, software), the scarcity shifts elsewhere (attention, trust, curation).

In the 1990s, information was scarce. Today, information is abundant but attention is scarce. In the future, attention might be abundant (AI agents consuming content) but something else will become scarce—probably authentic human judgment and trust.

The Talent Cycle

The job market moves in predictable waves:

  1. New skill emerges (scarce talent, high prices)
  2. Education catches up (supply increases)
  3. Technology commoditizes (automation reduces demand)
  4. New skill emerges (cycle repeats at higher level)

We saw this with:

  • Secretaries → Word processors
  • Graphic designers → Photoshop → Canva
  • Developers → No-code tools
  • Data analysts → AI analytics

The pattern: execution gets automated, judgment gets elevated.

The Crisis and Response Pattern

Every major crisis follows a pattern:

  1. Denial: “This won’t affect us”
  2. Panic: “Everything is broken”
  3. Adaptation: “New normal emerges”
  4. Innovation: “Opportunity in chaos”

COVID-19, financial crises, technological disruptions—same pattern, different context.

The companies that win are not those who avoid the crisis (impossible) but those who move fastest through the adaptation phase.

What This Means for Now

If history is cycles, here’s what we can anticipate:

For AI:

  • Phase 3 (mass adoption) starts 2025-2027
  • By 2030, AI is just “how things work”
  • The winners are being decided right now in Phase 2

For Work:

  • Remote/hybrid is the new normal (no going back)
  • Execution skills decline in value
  • Orchestration skills explode in value
  • The pace of required adaptation accelerates

For Business:

  • Traditional hiring models break (too slow)
  • Fractional/flexible talent becomes standard
  • Companies that can’t adapt fast enough die faster
  • Speed becomes the ultimate competitive advantage

The Meta Pattern

The pattern of patterns is this: cycles accelerate.

What took 100 years to happen in the 1800s now takes 10 years. What took 10 years in the 2000s now takes 2-3 years.

The cycle hasn’t changed—just the speed at which we move through it.

How to Use This

Understanding cycles doesn’t give you a crystal ball. But it gives you:

  1. Pattern recognition: “I’ve seen this movie before”
  2. Emotional preparation: “This panic/euphoria is expected”
  3. Strategic positioning: “I should be doing X now because Y comes next”
  4. Patience and urgency: “Some things take time, others need speed”

The Action Point

History doesn’t repeat exactly, but it rhymes. And right now, we’re in the verse that goes:

“The old ways are dying, the new ways are emerging, and those who can see the pattern position themselves for what comes next.”

The question is: are you positioning yourself for what’s emerging, or clinging to what’s dying?

The bottom line: If you understand cycles, you can see forward. Not perfectly, but enough to make better bets than those who think this time is different.

What cycles are you seeing that others are missing?